Bland gubernatorial election threatens to suppress voter turnout

by Robert Collins

In Saturday’s (Oct. 14) statewide election primary, many voters seem uninterested. To project turnout on election day, political analysts examine turnout during the early voting period. According to the Secretary of State’s Office, at the close of early voting, counting both in-person and mail-in voters, 344,878 had voted. For comparison, in 2019 during the last gubernatorial primary, 386,468 early voted. While mail-in ballots will continue to trickle in until Friday, so far, this is a drop off of 41,590, or about 11 percent. 

In the 2019 primary, Black voters made up 97,990 of the early vote total. This year, Black voters make up 90,118, or about 26 percent of the early vote total so far. Black voters make up about 31 percent of the total electorate. Many are surprised that we have not seen stronger Black turnout yet, since one of the major candidates, Shawn Wilson, is Black.

In the 2019 primary, turnout was about 46 percent. Before the start of early voting, the Secretary of State’s Office projected a primary turnout of between 42 and 46 percent. However, based on the lower-than-expected actual early vote numbers coming in now, many analysts are projecting around 40 percent or lower. 

Low turnout elections may disadvantage Black candidates and grassroots candidates, because they lack the resources to broadcast their messages widely, so they depend on riding the tickets of like-minded candidates at the top of the ballot. In an election that lacks enthusiasm, there are no coattails to ride, so the richest candidates can win by virtue of money. 

High turnout elections tend to correlate with Black voters and young voters representing an increased proportion of the total votes cast, while low turnout elections tend to be whiter and older in terms of the demographics of votes cast. Low turnout elections generally mean large parts of the electorate might not have opportunities to have their interests represented. 

How did we get here? Louisiana was the home of such characters as Huey Long and Edwin Edwards, and the state has a history of colorful politicians. Voters here expect their politicians to entertain them as well as inform them. They expect politics to be fun. Simply put, the current gubernatorial campaign is not fun, and, as a result, many voters are not excited. Many are not engaged at all. 

This race has been stagnant for months. Most pundits believe that Republican Jeff Landry and Democrat Shawn Wilson would run first and second and make it to the runoff. All of the polls have reinforced this expectation. None of the other Republican candidates have been able to displace Landry, because of his huge fundraising advantage. A stagnant race is a boring race. 

And yet, in spite of no excitement at the top of the ticket, it is still important that Orleans Parish voters show up on election day. There are many important races on the ballot, including a hotly contested race for House District 91 between incumbent Mandy Landry and challenger Madison O’Malley, that could help determine how the much-maligned Louisiana Democratic Party looks in the future. There is also a House District 23 race, an open Criminal Court Judgeship, as well as two proposed City Charter amendments and a school board tax renewal.  

There also are elections for all statewide offices, and a list of four proposed constitutional amendments that deal with issues as varied as whether or not nonprofits can be denied a tax exemption if they allow their properties to fall into disrepair; to whether or not external nonprofits, such as the Gates Foundation, can be banned from spending money on get out the vote efforts. 

The message from the candidates to the voters should be: Go vote, because these elections directly affect your quality of life. And the message from the voters to the gubernatorial candidates at the top of the ticket should be: If you could figure out how to add some fun and spice and excitement to your campaign, that would help voter turnout a great deal. This is Louisiana after all. To stay engaged, we need our politics to be like our food and music, hot and spicy.      

This article originally appeared in Verite News on October 10th, 2023.  

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KFF/theGrio Survey of Black Voters - Voter Priority Issues

KFF/theGrio Survey of Black Voters

Liz Hamel, Follow @lizhamel on TwitterShannon Schumacher, Grace SparksFollow @gracesparks on Twitter, Mellisha Stokes, and Mollyann Brodie 

Follow @gracesparks on TwitterMellisha Stokes , and Mollyann Brodie Follow @Mollybrodie on TwitterPublished: Oct 18, 2022

Economic Concerns Top Of Mind For Black Voters, But Non-Economic Issues Also Seen As Important In Voting Decisions

As the election approaches, economic issues loom large for Black voters and their families. When asked to state in their own words the top concern facing them and their families, about three in four (73%) Black voters point to economic concerns, including 32% who mention inflation and the cost of living and 21% who mention financial problems such as loss of income and making ends meet. Voters under age 65 are particularly likely to mention economic concerns (78% vs. 53% of those ages 65 and older), while a larger share of those ages 65 and older mention health concerns (17% vs. 7% of those under age 65). Crime, gun violence, and safety were raised by 3% of Black voters, while 2% named racism and racial disparities.

More broadly, at least six in ten Black voters say it’s a bad time to be a Black man (67%), a Black woman (62%), or a Black child (67%) in the US. Further, around eight in ten (81%) feel the economic system in the U.S. is stacked against people like them and a similar share say the same about the U.S. political system (79%).

Black voters prioritize a variety of issues as very important to their midterm vote, including economic as well as non-economic issues. Black voters cite an array of issues as very important when considering who to vote for this fall, with no one issue taking the top spot. In a top tier, six issues are clustered together, each with three in four or more Black voters who say the following are very important to their midterm vote: voting rights (80%), health care costs (78%), gun violence (77%), inflation, including gas prices (76%), criminal justice and policing (75%), and the affordability of housing (75%). Ranking somewhat lower is abortion access (64%), followed by climate change (52%), and immigration (38%). Mirroring broader partisan differences in the population as a whole, Black voters who identify as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic party are more likely to cite voting rights, health care costs, gun violence, abortion access, and climate change as important issues in their vote; those who identify or lean Republican are more likely to prioritize inflation and immigration.

Housing affordability ranks higher as a voting issue for certain groups of Black voters, including women, younger voters, and those with lower incomes. Housing affordability is a top issue for lower-income Black voters, with 84% of voters with incomes under $40,000 saying it is very important to their vote, compared to 57% of those with incomes of $90,000 or more. The cost of housing is also named as an important voting issue by a larger share of younger voters compared to older Black voters (78% of those under age 50 vs. 72% of those 50 and older) and for Black women compared to men (82% vs. 67%).

Gender is an important divide on other issues as well. Beyond housing affordability, Black women voters are more likely than Black men voters to say certain issues are very important to their vote, including health care costs (83% vs. 73%), gun violence (84% vs. 69%), inflation (79% vs. 71%), and abortion access (68% vs. 58%).

 

When asked about economic issues they would most like Biden and Congress to address, Black voters focus on basics like food and housing as well as the cost of health care. Of the issues polled, the cost of housing is a top concern for Black voters, with about three in ten (31%) saying it is the economic issue facing U.S. consumers they most want the President and Congress to address, including higher shares of women, younger voters, and those with lower incomes. About a quarter cite other necessities like the cost of food and health care, respectively.

In a sharp turnaround from early this summer, when gas prices were at their peak and the cost of gasoline took the top spot in a KFF poll of all adults, the cost of gas now ranks lower as a priority among Black voters.¹ One in ten Black voters now cite the cost of gasoline as the economic problem they most want the President and Congress to address, while a similar share (12%) cites student debt.²

Six In Ten Black Voters Say Congress Should Prioritize Policies To Improve Health Care For Black People

When asked about various things Congress could do to help improve health care for Black people in the US, Black voters prioritize many potential policies, with about six in ten saying each option polled should be a top priority. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of Black voters say increasing funding for services that would improve health care for Black mothers and babies is a top priority. About six in ten prioritize expanding government health insurance for lower-income people in states that have not expanded their Medicaid programs (62%) as well as increasing funding for treating health problems like heart disease and diabetes that disproportionately affect Black people (60%). A similar share (57%) also say it should be a top priority for Congress to increase funding to train medical professionals on anti-racism and how to provide culturally appropriate health care to Black people.

On many of these issues, Black women voters and those with lower incomes are particularly likely to see each of these as top priorities for Congress. Larger shares of Black women than Black men voters say increasing funding for services that would improve health care for Black mothers and babies (70% vs. 58%), increasing funding for health problems that disproportionately affect Black people (68% vs. 51%), and training medical professionals on anti-racism and culturally appropriate care (63% vs. 50%) should be top priorities for Congress.

Black voters with household incomes of less than $40,000 a year are more likely than those with incomes of $90,000 or more to say Congress should prioritize increasing funding for services to improve health care for Black mothers and babies (68% vs. 52%). There is a similar gap in the share of lower-income and higher-income Black voters who say it should be a top priority for Congress to expand government health insurance coverage for lower-income people in states that have not expanded their Medicaid programs (67% vs. 54%).

This article originally appeared at KFF.org, October 18th, 2022.

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KFF/theGrio Survey of Black Voters - Voter Suppression

KFF/theGrio Survey of Black Voters

Liz Hamel, Follow @lizhamel on TwitterShannon Schumacher, Grace SparksFollow @gracesparks on Twitter, Mellisha Stokes, and Mollyann Brodie Follow @Mollybrodie on Twitter
Published: Oct 18, 2022

Black voters are also concerned about electoral integrity. While a large majority are at least somewhat confident that their own vote will be accurately counted in November, seven in ten are concerned about voter suppression interfering with a fair and accurate election in their state. Half say they have experienced waiting in long lines at their polling place in the past, and one in five have experienced potential voter suppression such as having their registration or identification questioned. Younger Black voters and those who have experienced potential voter suppression in the past are less confident that their vote will be accurately counted this November.

Black Voters Generally Confident Their Vote Will Be Counted, But Concerned About Voter Suppression

Black voters are generally confident that their vote will be accurately counted this November. A large majority (84%) of Black voters say they are at least “somewhat” confident their vote will be accurately counted in this November’s election, including more than four in ten (45%) who say they are very confident. However, younger voters under age 50 are less likely to feel very confident compared to their older counterparts (37% vs. 55%), and about one in five younger Black voters (22%) say they are “not too confident” or “not at all confident” that their vote will be counted accurately.

 

Seven in ten Black voters are worried about voter suppression and almost half are worried about voter fraud interfering with a fair and accurate election in their state this November. Three in four Black voters who are Democrat or lean Democrat say they are worried about voter suppression, compared to about half (48%) of their Republican counterparts. Conversely, Black voters who are Republican or lean toward the party (64%) are more likely than Black Democrats/leaners (42%) to say they are worried about voter fraud. Black voters of all ages are equally likely to express worry about voter suppression, but there is an age gap on concerns about fraud. Half of Black voters under age 50 say they are very or somewhat worried about voter fraud, compared to 38% of voters over 50.

About half of Black voters say they have experienced waiting in long lines at their polling place, while one in five report experiencing acts of potential voter suppression, such as having their voter registration questioned. Nearly half (46%) of Black voters say they have experienced waiting in long lines at their polling place in the past. In addition, small but important shares report experiencing forms of potential voter suppression, including 12% who say they had their voter registration questioned, 11% who say they requested a mail-in ballot but it never arrived or arrived too late, 6% who were told they didn’t have the correct identification, and 5% who say they had their mail-in ballot rejected. Overall, one in five Black voters say they have experienced at least one of these things.

Experiences with potential voter suppression may impact Black voters’ confidence in the electoral process overall, though the survey does not suggest that it will decrease turnout this November. About a third (32%) of Black voters who have experienced potential voter suppression in the past say they are “very confident” their vote will be accurately counted this fall, compared to a larger share of those who have not experienced voter suppression (48%). However, at this point there is no evidence in the survey that these experiences will suppress turnout in November: these two groups are about equally likely to say they are absolutely certain to vote in the upcoming midterm (60% and 65%, respectively) and that they are more motivated to vote this year compared to previous elections (56% and 50%, respectively).

 

Majorities of Black voters say gerrymandering, limiting early voting, and voter ID laws are problems for Black representation in U.S. politics, with larger shares identifying gerrymandering and limiting early voting as major problems. Majorities of Black voters say these things are at least minor problems for Black representation in U.S. politics, with the largest share identifying gerrymandering as a major problem (64%), followed by limiting early voting (55%) and voter ID laws (39%). On all three issues polled, Black Democrats and those who lean Democratic are more likely to say these are problems than Republicans and those who lean toward the Republican party.

Figure 8

Majority Of Black Voters See Gerrymandering, Limiting Early Voting, And Voter ID Laws As A Problem When It Comes To Black Representation

Thinking about our current political system, how much of a problem, if at all, are each of the following when it comes to Black representation in U.S. politics?

Major

 problem

Minor

 problem

Not

 a problem

Gerrymandering, or redrawing election districts to favor one political party

Total Black voters

64%

24%

10%

Democrat/Lean Democrat

68%

21%

9%

Republican/Lean Republican

51%

35%

13%

Limiting early voting and vote by mail options

Total Black voters

55%

28%

17%

Democrat/Lean Democrat

59%

27%

14%

Republican/Lean Republican

35%

33%

32%

Laws requiring voters to show government-issued photo identification

Total Black voters

39%

36%

24%

Democrat/Lean Democrat

41%

38%

21%

Republican/Lean Republican

33%

28%

39%

NOTE: See topline for full question wording.SOURCE: KFF/theGrio Survey of Black Voters (August 24-September 5, 2022)  PNG

This article originally appeared at KFF.org, October 18th, 2022.

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KFF/theGrio Survey of Black Voters - Voter Motivation

KFF/theGrio Survey of Black Voters

Liz Hamel, Follow @lizhamel on TwitterShannon Schumacher, Grace SparksFollow @gracesparks on Twitter, Mellisha Stokes, and Mollyann Brodie 

Follow @Mollybrodie on TwitterPublished: Oct 18, 2022

The Survey of Black voters, the first under a new partnership between KFF and theGrio, examines the mood and opinions of an important group of voters as the 2022 midterm election approaches. A group that has historically been a solid voting bloc for Democrats, the views of Black voters are often examined as one monolithic group or even sometimes overlooked in midterm election polling. This survey goes beyond the insights that can be gleaned about Black voters from polls of the general public by collecting data from a large enough sample of Black voters to examine variations within the Black electorate by factors such as age, education, political affiliation, and ideology. The survey explores Black voters’ voting intentions, motivations, and views on key electoral issues for the upcoming midterm. It also examines Black voters’ attitudes toward the Democratic and Republican Parties, views on electoral integrity, and past experiences with voter suppression. In addition to these election-related topics, the survey sheds light on how Black voters feel about timely topics including recent Supreme Court decisions, policies affecting LGBT individuals, and policies aimed at improving health for Black people in the United States.

The survey sample is comprised of 1,000 Black adults who identify as Black or African American (including those who identify as Hispanic and/or multi-racial) and who say they are registered to vote.

Half Of Black Voters Say They Are More Motivated to Vote This Year

Half (51%) of Black voters say they are more motivated to vote this year compared to previous elections, while 36% say they are about as motivated and 13% say they are less motivated to vote this year. The share of Black voters who say they are more motivated is similar to the share of White voters (53%) who said the same in another KFF survey fielded in September. Substantial shares of Black voters across groups say they are more motivated this year, but motivation is somewhat higher among older vs. younger Black voters (58% vs. 46%), among those who say they always vote in midterms vs. those who vote less often (65% vs. 42%), and among those who approve of Biden’s job performance vs. those who disapprove (58% vs. 37%). About half of both Black men voters and Black women voters say they are more motivated to vote this year, as do similar shares of those who identify as or lean Democrat and those who identify as or lean Republican. A much smaller share (27%) of those who say they are independent and don’t lean toward either party say they are more motivated to vote this year.

Black voters who are more motivated this year are largely driven by a desire to vote for Democrats or keep Republicans out of office or a general desire for change. Among the 51% of Black voters who say they are more motivated to vote this year compared to previous elections, 28% cite party-related reasons, such as a desire to elect Democrats or to keep Republicans and Trump supporters out of office, and 27% cite a desire for change or dissatisfaction with the status quo. About one in five cite specific issues (21%) or reasons related to democracy, voting rights, and the importance of voting (18%) for their greater motivation. Among the specific issues mentioned, 6% cite abortion rights and 5% cite economic issues as the source of their motivation.

Those who are less motivated largely say that they don’t think their vote will make a difference (22%), that they dislike the candidates (16%), or that they feel all politicians are dishonest (10%).

Majorities of Black voters say they consider candidate’s issue positions, character and experience, and political party when deciding how to vote, but fewer say a candidate’s race is a major factor. Large majorities of Black voters say that a candidate’s position on issues (86%) and character and experience (79%) are major factors in making their decision about how to vote for Congress this year, and a smaller majority (55%) say the same about the candidate’s political party. A much smaller share (21%) say a candidate’s race is a major factor in their decision.

Despite reporting they will consider many things beyond the candidate’s party, three-quarters (77%) of Black voters say that if the election were held at the time of the survey, they would be most likely to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress in their district, while 11% say they would be more likely to vote for a Republican and another 11% for a candidate from another party.

This article originally appeared at KFF.org, October 18th, 2022.

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