Israel's War on Gaza and Beyond Has Cost US Taxpayers At Least $22.76 Billion: Report

By Brett Wilkins

"It has been difficult for the U.S. public, journalists, and members of Congress to get an accurate understanding of the amount of military equipment and financial assistance that the U.S. government has provided."

U.S. armed aid to Israel and related spending on American militarism in the Middle East cost taxpayers at least $22.76 billion over the past year, according to new research published Monday.

The Costs of War Project at Brown University's Watson Institute for International & Public Affairs—which has long been the premier source for statistics on the human and economic costs of ongoing U.S.-led post-9/11 wars and militarism in the Middle East and beyond—called the $22.76 billion estimate "conservative."

"This figure includes the $17.9 billion the U.S. government has approved in security assistance for Israeli military operations in Gaza and elsewhere since October 7—substantially more than in any other year since the U.S. began granting military aid to Israel in 1959," report authors Linda Bilmes, William Hartung, and Stephen Semler wrote. "Yet the report describes how this is only a partial amount of the U.S. financial support provided during this war."

In addition to the repeated multibillion-dollar rounds of military aid to Israel, related U.S. operations in the region, particularly bombing and shipping defense in and near Yemen—where Houthi rebels have attacked maritime commerce and launched missiles at Israel—have cost over $2 billion since last October.

"It has been difficult for the U.S. public, journalists, and members of Congress to get an accurate understanding of the amount of military equipment and financial assistance that the U.S. government has provided to Israel's military during the past year of war," the report states. "There is likewise little U.S. public awareness of the costs of the United States military's own related operations in the region, particularly in and around Yemen."

The analysis adds that regional hostilities "have escalated to become the most sustained military campaign by U.S. forces since the 2016-19 air war" against the so-called Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

"The Costs of War project has an obligation to look at the consequences of the U.S. backing of Israel's military operations after October 7, especially as it reverberates throughout the region," Costs of War director Stephanie Savell said in a statement. "Our project examines the human and budgetary costs of U.S. militarism at home and abroad, and for the last year, people in Gaza have suffered the highest consequences imaginable."

According to the Gaza Health Ministry and international agencies, Israel's yearlong assault on Gaza has left at least 149,000 Palestinians dead, maimed, or missing, and millions more forcibly displaced, starved, or sickened. U.S. military aid to Israel has continued in successive waves, even as the country stands trial for genocide at the International Court of Justice.

The Hamas-led October 7 attack on resulted in more than 1,100 Israeli and other deaths—at least some of which were caused by so-called "friendly fire" and intentional targeting under the Hannibal Directive—with more than 240 people kidnapped.

Although the Costs of War Project report mainly covers U.S. aid to Israel since last October, it also notes that since 1948—the year the modern state of Israel was founded, largely through the ethnic cleansing of Palestine's Arabs—American taxpayers have contributed over a quarter trillion inflation-adjusted dollars to the key Mideast ally.

A second report published Monday by the Costs of War Project found that around 90% of Gaza's population has been forcibly displaced by the Israeli onslaught and 96% of Gazans face "acute levels of food insecurity." The publication cites a letter sent last week by a group of U.S. physicians to President Joe Biden—who has repeatedly declared his "unwavering" support for Israel—stating that "it is likely that the death toll from this conflict is already greater than 118,908, an astonishing 5.4% of Gaza's population." That figure includes 62,000 deaths due to starvation.

"In addition to killing people directly through traumatic injuries, wars cause 'indirect deaths' by destroying, damaging, or causing deterioration of economic, social, psychological and health conditions," report author Sophia Stamatopoulou-Robbins wrote. "These deaths result from diseases and other population-level health effects that stem from war's destruction of public infrastructure and livelihood sources, reduced access to water and sanitation, environmental damage, and other such factors."

The new report comes less than two weeks after Israel secured yet another U.S. armed aid package, this one worth $8.7 billion. Meanwhile, the Federal Emergency Management Agency said it faced a nearly $9 billion shortfall for Hurricane Helene relief efforts.

This article originally appeared in Common Dreams October 7th, 2024

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U.S. appellate court temporarily allows enforcement of DeSantis’ ‘Anti-Riot’ law

By Jackie Llanos

A federal appellate court is temporarily allowing Florida to enforce the 2021 state law imposing harsher penalties for protesters who engage in violent or disorderly conduct.

The unanimous decision by a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit reverses a federal trial judge’s ruling blocking the law because its definition of the word “riot” was too vague. Now, the Eleventh Circuit is sending the dispute between several civil rights organizations and Gov. Ron DeSantis back to the lower court.

Although temporary, the reversal of U.S. District Judge Mark Walker’s preliminary injunction means that DeSantis is likely to prevail against the legal challenge to (HB 1), officially labeled the “Combatting Violence, Disorder, and Looting, and Law Enforcement Protection Act,” but better known as the “Anti-Riot Act.”

“The plaintiffs’ fear of guilt by association under the statute is also unfounded,” wrote Judge Jill Pryor in the 17-page opinion. She was appointed to the 11th Circuit by former President Barack Obama. “If a protestor lacks the ‘intent to assist others in violent and disorderly conduct,’ the spontaneous violence of unrelated individuals is not enough to trigger liability under the statute.”

She added: “The statute does not broadly prohibit constitutionally protected speech. Nor does it reach the plaintiffs’ hypothetical photographing or videotaping of police officers at a violent protest, so long as the photography or videography is not intended to assist others in carrying out violence.”

Much of the appellate court’s opinion hinges on the Florida Supreme Court’s interpretation of the law. In June, the Florida court ruled that the law didn’t apply to peaceful protesters who happened to be with a crowd that turned violent. Both DeSantis and the ACLU of Florida celebrated the state Supreme Court’s opinion at the time, with the civil rights organization calling it a “monumental victory for protesters.”

Daniel Tilley, the ACLU of Florida’s legal director, also celebrated Monday’s ruling, writing in a statement that HB 1 threatened Black Floridians who have been criminalized and targeted for exercising their rights.

“Today’s decision reaffirms important legal protections that will benefit anyone who wants to take a public stand to demand racial justice, as well as all Floridians who want to peacefully demonstrate for what they believe in without fear of reprisal,” Tilley wrote.

Walker will have to reevaluate the law in accordance with the appellate ruling.

Pryor thanked the Florida justices for their input in the ruling.

The Florida Legislature passed the law the spring after protests broke out throughout the state and nation against police brutality after George Floyd’s murder by Minneapolis Police Department officers.

After the law’s passage, groups such as Dream Defenders, the Florida State Conference of the NAACP, Black Collective Inc., Chainless Change Inc., and Black Lives Matter Alliance Broward filed suit in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Florida. The groups claimed the law chilled First Amendment rights.

This story has been updated to include comment from the ACLU of Florida sent to Florida Phoenix after publication.

This article originally appeared in the Florida Phoenix October 7th, 2024

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Crime is down, FBI says, but politicians still choose statistics to fit their narratives

 By Amanda Hernandez

Violent crime and property crime in the United States dropped in 2023, continuing a downward trend following higher rates of crime during the pandemic, according to the FBI’s latest national crime report.

Murders and intentional manslaughter, known as non-negligent manslaughter, fell by 11.6% from 2022. Property crime dropped by 2.4%.

Overall, FBI data shows that violent crime fell by 3%.

Violent crime has become a major issue in the 2024 presidential race, with former President Donald Trump claiming that crime has been “through the roof” under the Biden administration.

On the campaign trail, Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, has cited findings from a different source — the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey — to argue that crime is out of control.

While the FBI’s data reflects only crimes reported to the police, the victimization survey is based on interviews conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau and includes both reported and unreported crimes. Interviewees are asked whether they reported the crime to the police. But the survey does not include murder data and only tracks crimes against individuals aged 12 and older.

The victimization survey, released in mid-September, shows that the violent crime victimization rate rose from 16.4 per 1,000 people in 2020 to 22.5 per 1,000 in 2023. The report also notes that the 2023 rate is statistically similar to the rate in 2019, when Trump was in office.

Many crime data experts consider both sources trustworthy. But the agencies track different trends, measure crimes differently and collect data over varying time frames. Unlike the victimization survey, the FBI’s data is largely based on calls for service or police reports. Still, most crimes go unreported, which means the FBI’s data is neither entirely accurate nor complete.

The victimization surveys released throughout the peak years of the pandemic were particularly difficult to conduct, which is a key reason why, according to some experts, the FBI and the survey may show different trends.

As a result, these differences, which are often unknown or misunderstood, make it easier for anyone — including politicians — to manipulate findings to support their agendas.

Political candidates at the national, state and local levels on both sides of the aisle have used crime statistics in their campaigns this year, with some taking credit for promising trends and others using different numbers to flog their opponents. But it’s difficult to draw definitive conclusions about crime trends or attribute them to specific policies.

“There’s never any single reason why crime trends move one way or another,” said Ames Grawert, a crime data expert and senior counsel for the Brennan Center for Justice’s justice program. The Brennan Center is a left-leaning law and policy group.

“When an answer is presented that maybe makes intuitive sense or a certain political persuasion, it’s all too natural to jump to that answer. The problem is that that is just not how crime works,” Grawert told Stateline.

At an August rally in Philadelphia, the Democratic vice presidential candidate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, said: “Violent crime was up under Donald Trump. That’s not even counting the crimes he committed.”

During Trump’s first three years in office, the violent crime rate per 100,000 people actually decreased each year, according to the FBI, from 376.5 in 2017, to 370.8 in 2018, to 364.4 in 2019.

It wasn’t until 2020 that the rate surged to 386.3, the highest under Trump, which is when the country experienced the largest one-year increase in murders.

We live in a world of sound bites, and people aren't taking the time to digest information and fact check. The onus is on the voter.

– Alex Piquero, criminology professor at the University of Miami and former director of the federal Bureau of Justice Statistics

Walz’s comments overlook the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the social upheaval following George Floyd’s murder by a Minneapolis police officer in 2020. And despite the increase that year, the violent crime rate in Trump’s final year remained slightly lower than in the last year of President Barack Obama’s administration. In 2016, the rate was 386.8 per 100,000 people.

Following the release of the FBI’s annual crime report last month, U.S. Rep. Dan Bishop, a Republican running for attorney general in North Carolina, shared and later deleted a retweet on X that falsely claimed the FBI’s data showed zero homicides in Los Angeles and New Orleans last year. In fact, FBI data showed that the Los Angeles Police Department reported 325 homicides, while New Orleans police reported 198 in 2023.

Voters worry

Crime has emerged as a top issue on voters’ minds.

A Gallup poll conducted in March found that nearly 80% of Americans worry about crime and violence “a great deal” or “a fair amount,” ranking it above concerns such as the economy and illegal immigration. In another Gallup poll conducted late last year, 63% of respondents described crime in the U.S. as either extremely or very serious — the highest percentage since Gallup began asking the question in 2000.

Crime data usually lags by at least a year, depending on the agency or organization gathering and analyzing the statistics. But the lack of accurate, real-time crime data from official sources, such as federal or state agencies, may leave some voters vulnerable to political manipulation, according to some crime and voter behavior experts.

There are at least three trackers collecting and analyzing national and local crime data that aim to close the gap in real-time reporting. Developed by the Council on Criminal Justice, data consulting firm AH Datalytics and NORC at the University of Chicago, these trackers all show a similar trend of declining crime rates.

“We live in a world of sound bites, and people aren’t taking the time to digest information and fact check,” Alex Piquero, a criminology professor at the University of Miami and former director of the federal Bureau of Justice Statistics, said in an interview with Stateline. “The onus is on the voter.”

Crime trends and limitations

In 2020, when shutdowns in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic kept people at home, homicides surged by nearly 30% — the largest single-year increase since the FBI began tracking crime.

In 2022, violent crime had fallen back to near pre-pandemic levels, and the FBI data showed a continued decline last year. The rate of violent crime dropped from about 377 incidents per 100,000 people in 2022, to around 364 per 100,000 in 2023, slightly below the 2019 rate.

The largest cities, those with populations of at least 1 million, saw the biggest drop in violent crime — nearly 7% — while cities with populations between 250,000 and 500,000 saw a slight 0.3% increase.

Rape incidents decreased by more than 9% and aggravated assault by nearly 3%. Burglary and larceny-theft decreased by 8% and 4%, respectively.

Motor vehicle theft, however, rose by 12% in 2023 compared with 2022, the highest rate of car theft since 2007, with 319 thefts per 100,000 people.

Although national data suggests an overall major decrease in crime across the country, some crime-data experts caution that that isn’t necessarily the case in individual cities and neighborhoods.

“It can be sort of simplistic to look at national trends. You have to allow the space for nuance and context about what’s happening at the local level too,” said Grawert, of the Brennan Center.

Some crime experts and politicians have criticized the FBI’s latest report, pointing out that not all law enforcement agencies have submitted their crime statistics.

The FBI is transitioning participating agencies to a new reporting system called the National Incident-Based Reporting System or NIBRS. The FBI mandated that the transition, which began in the late 1980s, be completed by 2021. This requirement resulted in a significant drop in agency participation for that year’s report because some law enforcement agencies couldn’t meet the deadline.

In 2022, the FBI relaxed the requirement, allowing agencies to use both the new and older reporting systems. Since the 2021 mandate, more law enforcement agencies have transitioned to the new reporting system.

Reporting crime data to the FBI is voluntary, and some departments may submit only a few months’ worth of data.

Although the FBI’s latest report covers 94% of the U.S. population, only 73% of all law enforcement agencies participated, using either reporting system, according to Stateline’s analysis of the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting program participation data. This means that 5,926 agencies, or 27%, did not report any data to the FBI.

The majority of the missing agencies are likely smaller rural departments that don’t participate due to limited resources and staff, according to some crime data experts.

But participation in the FBI’s crime reporting program has steadily increased over time, particularly after the drop in 2021. Many of the law enforcement agencies in the country’s largest cities submitted data for 2023, and every city agency serving a population of 1 million or more provided a full year of data, according to the FBI’s report.  

This article originally appeared in Stateline October 7th, 2024

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